This morning, we all woke up to a shocking result in Great Britain: the #Brexit Leave campaign has won, which means that Britain has voted to leave the European Union. Meanwhile, Scotland seems to be gearing up for another independence referendum, as the Scottish voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, which means that the political entity known as Great Britain may fracture further.
All of this turmoil has economic implications. Already, at 11 AM as we write this, the value of the British pound has plunged by 12% to its lowest value in over 30 years… and the value of US Treasury Bonds has soared. As the spectre of Britain’s Article 50 exit from the EU looms, our thoughts turn to real estate. The London real estate market has for years been a favourite of international luxury buyers: a British exit from the EU will mean this market will become much less attractive as an investment. Brexit will bring a more complicated purchase process for EU buyers, fewer new homes being built, and a significant cooling effect on the market itself as international buyers are likely to choose more stable markets for investment.
So, what effect will Brexit have on Canadian real estate prices? Our prediction is that as the post-referendum process plays out, if it looks like Britain is serious about an exit – and especially it seems that Scotland and Northern Ireland want to stay in the EU (and therefore would break from Great Britain) – international buyers are likely to choose Canadian markets, particularly Toronto and Vancouver, as more attractive investment property destinations. Therefore, we believe there will be a significant downturn in London’s real estate market, and that the Toronto real estate market and the Vancouver real estate market are likely to see an increase in sales and in prices as a result of the Brexit vote.
We’ll keep you updated as things progress.